Fangraphs Offseason Article

[kab21]

Dave, the problem with your analysis is that guys who don't miss bats tend to get REALLY slapped around every so often, especially sinkballers because if the sinker isn't working, they generally become helpless on the mound because they rely on that sink to generate weak contact and if their secondary stuff was better, their K rate would reflect that.

Still, a small improvement is possible from Blackburn but I'd be floored if he ever posted a sub-4 ERA over a season.

Blackburn has had a 4.05 (2008) and a 4.03 (2009) ERA the past two seasons...a small improvement would most likely give him a sub 4 ERA.

Just a random prediction, but I could see Blackburn being our version of the 1991 Kevin Tapani this year, who would then morph into Jack Morris once we make the World Series.

I can see him see him with an ERA anywhere from 3.53-4.82 just like Blanton. It's good if you catch him on a good year and not so if catch him on down year. But he's great to have as a #4.

[snepp]

This Blackburn hate/ lack of respect around here is really puzzling to me.

You sure beat the shit out of that strawman didn't you?

[VodkaDave]

This Blackburn hate/ lack of respect around here is really puzzling to me.

You sure beat the shit out of that strawman didn't you?

[Rocketpig]

I don't get it either. I've always been a Blackburn supporter and think he's a real asset to the team. Shit, I think half this board wanted to lynch him last July and I never really understood it. Maybe it's a latent hatred of all things sinker after all those years of NBG.

Not sure if it was in this thread but I mentioned that I thought the MI grass and Target Field could give Nick a small stat bump.

[Iastfan112]

Dave, the problem with your analysis is that guys who don't miss bats tend to get REALLY slapped around every so often, especially sinkballers because if the sinker isn't working, they generally become helpless on the mound because they rely on that sink to generate weak contact and if their secondary stuff was better, their K rate would reflect that.

Still, a small improvement is possible from Blackburn but I'd be floored if he ever posted a sub-4 ERA over a season.

Blackburn has had a 4.05 (2008) and a 4.03 (2009) ERA the past two seasons...a small improvement would most likely give him a sub 4 ERA.

Just a random prediction, but I could see Blackburn being our version of the 1991 Kevin Tapani this year, who would then morph into Jack Morris once we make the World Series.

I can see him see him with an ERA anywhere from 3.53-4.82 just like Blanton. It's good if you catch him on a good year and not so if catch him on down year. But he's great to have as a #4.

But even a 4.8 era is fairly average for #4 if I recall correctly.

[kab21]

I don't get it either. I've always been a Blackburn supporter and think he's a real asset to the team. Shit, I think half this board wanted to lynch him last July and I never really understood it. Maybe it's a latent hatred of all things sinker after all those years of NBG.

Not sure if it was in this thread but I mentioned that I thought the MI grass and Target Field could give Nick a small stat bump.

You mean the thread where many considered him a 3.00 ERA pitcher and the various theories on why he was going to be the exception? How exactly did he do in the 2nd half?

He's a great asset to the team but he doesn't have much, if any upside.

[Nick N.]

Lord, I say Blackburn has "bust potential" and all of a sudden there's some enormous "hate" and "lack of respect" for the guy. Settle down.

Look, obviously Blackburn has been an asset for the Twins over the past few years. But it doesn't take a pedigreed sabermetrician to realize that someone who gives up a staggering number of hits (no AL pitcher gave up more than Blackburn last year), doesn't strike anybody out and doesn't induce a particularly high number of ground balls could be vulnerable to some tough times. If you don't believe that, check out Carlos Silva's 2006 season or Blackburn's stretch of 11 games from July 20 to Sept 11 last year in which he posted a 7.36 ERA and .356 BAA. The Twins went 2-9 during that span and were regularly put in deep holes because he was getting bashed around, so the notion that he "he will keep you in the game every day he pitches" is demonstrably false.

[Pseudofool]

Blackburn's stretch of 11 games from July 20 to Sept 11 last year in which he posted a 7.36 ERA and .356 BAA. The Twins went 2-9 during that span and were regularly put in deep holes because he was getting bashed around, so the notion that he "he will keep you in the game every day he pitches" is demonstrably false.

Oh, the arbitrary sample size argument. Boo-ya, take that guys. Conversely, if I ignore those 11 start, Blackburn is awesome-O! The fact that there's an eleven game stretch of horrible ineffectiveness, suggests that it probably isn't indicative of Blackburn typical pitching, and that there was something more going on, health-wise, head-wise, or mechanics-wise. That said, I really don't have a horse in this argument, as it's easy to buy into the no upside argument, which of course, doesn't suggest that Blackburn is bad or even liable to regress.

[Nick N.]

Oh, the arbitrary sample size argument. Boo-ya, take that guys. Conversely, if I ignore those 11 start, Blackburn is awesome-O! The fact that there's an eleven game stretch of horrible ineffectiveness, suggests that it probably isn't indicative of Blackburn typical pitching, and that there was something more going on, health-wise, head-wise, or mechanics-wise. That said, I really don't have a horse in this argument, as it's easy to buy into the no upside argument, which of course, doesn't suggest that Blackburn is bad or even liable to regress.

The point is that he fell apart for a period of time last year and couldn't seem to get himself right. When you read quotes from him during that period he seemed confused and frustrated because there was no injury or obvious mechanical issue -- he was just getting shellacked almost each time out. Not a stretch to see that happening over a longer period of time, like it did for Silva in '06 and pretty much ever since he left the Twins.

[VodkaDave]

Did you seriously just compare Blackburn to Silva????

[Nick N.]

Did you seriously just compare Blackburn to Silva????

Would you care to explain to me why it is not a perfectly apt comparison?

[VodkaDave]

Did you seriously just compare Blackburn to Silva????

Would you care to explain to me why it is not a perfectly apt comparison?

Silva became the piece of shit he is because he had a poor work ethic, was out of shape, and wouldn't listen to coaching. He also started giving up a ton of HR's something blackburn has yet to do.

[Nick N.]

Did you seriously just compare Blackburn to Silva????

Would you care to explain to me why it is not a perfectly apt comparison?

Silva became the piece of shit he is because he had a poor work ethic, was out of shape, and wouldn't listen to coaching. He also started giving up a ton of HR's something blackburn has yet to do.

Was he back in shape and listening to coaching again in 2007, when he had a fine season? Or does his fluctuation have a lot more to do with the fickle nature of contact pitchers with middling ground ball rates than with the gamut of manufactured excuses that you're regurgitating from who knows where?

[Pseudofool]

Not a stretch to see that happening over a longer period of time, like it did for Silva in '06 and pretty much ever since he left the Twins.

I think it's a stretch to suggest that eleven game streak could turn into the rest of his career, esp. considering he bounced back pretty thoroughly from that drought. Sure it's a possibility, but it's also a stretch that he ends up like Silva.

[edavis0308]

Did you seriously just compare Blackburn to Silva????
Would you care to explain to me why it is not a perfectly apt comparison?

Silva became the piece of shit he is because he had a poor work ethic, was out of shape, and wouldn't listen to coaching. He also started giving up a ton of HR's something blackburn has yet to do.

Was he back in shape and listening to coaching again in 2007, when he had a fine season? Or does his fluctuation have a lot more to do with the fickle nature of contact pitchers with middling ground ball rates than with the gamut of manufactured excuses that you're regurgitating from who knows where?

[Nick N.]

Not a stretch to see that happening over a longer period of time, like it did for Silva in '06 and pretty much ever since he left the Twins.

I think it's a stretch to suggest that eleven game streak could turn into the rest of his career, esp. considering he bounced back pretty thoroughly from that drought. Sure it's a possibility, but it's also a stretch that he ends up like Silva.

I'm not basing my concerns solely on that 11-game stretch, I'm simply pointing to it as an example of what can happen when things go wrong. Unless you believe that forcing batters to hit the ball directly at fielders is a consistently repeatable skill, you should share the same concerns. I do believe that Blackburn's pitches have enough movement that he's able to frequently induce weak contact, but it's naive to think that just because he's been solid over the first two years of his career he has nothing to worry about moving forward. Silva was solid in his first two years with the Twins as well.

[jewscott]

Not a stretch to see that happening over a longer period of time, like it did for Silva in '06 and pretty much ever since he left the Twins.

I think it's a stretch to suggest that eleven game streak could turn into the rest of his career, esp. considering he bounced back pretty thoroughly from that drought. Sure it's a possibility, but it's also a stretch that he ends up like Silva.

The bigger point to be learned from it is the same lesson that can be learned from Silva or Chien Ming Wang. When you're a one-pitch pitcher who rides a sinking fastball, the margin for error is ridiculously low. One little glitch in you shoulder that causes your fastball to come in at 89 instead of 91 is enough for a major league caliber hitter to be all over you.

[edavis0308]

Did my picture not work? Damn. I thought it worked well, too.

[TheLeviathan]

Did my picture not work? Damn. I thought it worked well, too.

What was it?

[a-wan]

Did my picture not work? Damn. I thought it worked well, too.

What was it?

A Silva-Blacky-Andy Eiffel Tower???

[diehardtwinsfan]

Was he back in shape and listening to coaching again in 2007, when he had a fine season? Or does his fluctuation have a lot more to do with the fickle nature of contact pitchers with middling ground ball rates than with the gamut of manufactured excuses that you're regurgitating from who knows where?

You have a point Nick, but be careful that you don't take it too far. Blackburn's 11 game slump was capped with him and Anderson sitting down and correcting a flaw in his mechanics. This was well documented, after which point Blackburn resumed being Blackburn. I agree that a minor should tweak can be the difference between respectable and Carlos Silva, but I think you tend to assume that because it doesn't fit the statistical model, it must be luck. Blackburn has been lucky 3 years and a row now. At what point is it no longer luck?

[Nick N.]

You have a point Nick, but be careful that you don't take it too far. Blackburn's 11 game slump was capped with him and Anderson sitting down and correcting a flaw in his mechanics. This was well documented, after which point Blackburn resumed being Blackburn. I agree that a minor should tweak can be the difference between respectable and Carlos Silva, but I think you tend to assume that because it doesn't fit the statistical model, it must be luck. Blackburn has been lucky 3 years and a row now. At what point is it no longer luck?

Is it possible to lead the league in hits allowed and still post an above-average ERA without a fair amount of luck?

I don't mean to discount his success. I like Blackburn, I feel confident with him on the hill. There are things he does very well. He's a fast worker, he possesses fantastic command and his pitches have good late movement that usually prevents hitters from making real solid contact. He simply treads a dangerous line because he allows an awful lot of contact.

[Hornhead]

Is it possible to lead the league in hits allowed and still post an above-average ERA without a fair amount of luck?

I don't mean to discount his success. I like Blackburn, I feel confident with him on the hill. There are things he does very well. He's a fast worker, he possesses fantastic command and his pitches have good late movement that usually prevents hitters from making real solid contact. He simply treads a dangerous line because he allows an awful lot of contact.

Maybe he is just pitching as he has been coached. If Punto isn't allowed to dive his tail off and make gritty plays, what is his value?

[twinscowboysbulls]

It's unfair to Blackburn to compare him so closely to Silva, considering he has shown much success, while not really showing the flaws that Silva has.

[Nick N.]

It's unfair to Blackburn to compare him so closely to Silva, considering he has shown much success, while not really showing the flaws that Silva has.

This point bears repeating:

Silva in his first 2 years with Twins: 3.84 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .301 BAA, 3.4 K/9, 1.0 BB/9

Blackburn in his first 2 years with Twins: 4.04 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .291 BAA, 4.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9

What "flaws" had Silva shown in his first two years that Blackburn hasn't, exactly?

[edavis0308]

Did my picture not work? Damn. I thought it worked well, too.

What was it?

The You Got Served movie poster. Sigh.

[twinscowboysbulls]

It's unfair to Blackburn to compare him so closely to Silva, considering he has shown much success, while not really showing the flaws that Silva has.

This point bears repeating:

Silva in his first 2 years with Twins: 3.84 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, .301 BAA, 3.4 K/9, 1.0 BB/9

Blackburn in his first 2 years with Twins: 4.04 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, .291 BAA, 4.4 K/9, 1.8 BB/9

What "flaws" had Silva shown in his first two years that Blackburn hasn't, exactly?

Okay, you can literally research those stats, and find plenty of guys that had numbers similar numbers their first couple years. I bet you can also find a bunch of guys who went on to be very successful also. I'm not going to do that research though. You are right, but why does he automatically compare to the guy who went to dogshit? There are other comparisons...such as Blanton like others said. You automatically compare him to the biggest piece of dogshit in the majors when he hasn't performed that poorly? Compare him to Silva after he has a shit year like Silva.

[VodkaDave]

How about you compare Blackburn to someone that actually is not a fat sack of crap, you know like Joe Blanton perhaps? Someone that actually is a good comp for Blackburn. For some reason I don't see Blackburn putting on 80 pounds, having a shitty attitude and refuse to respond to coaching anytime soon.

By comparing him to Silva you are using a ridiculously extreme example. (kind of like comparing Mauer to Andruw Jones)
You are better then that Nick.



*edit- Twinscowboysbulls beat me to the punch by a couple minutes!

[DPJ]

Okay, you can literally research a tthose stats, and find plenty of guys that had numbers similar numbers their first couple years. I bet you can also find a bunch of guys who went on to be very successful also. I'm not going to do that research though. You are right, but why does he automatically compare to the guy who went to dogshit? There are other comparisons...such as Blanton like others said. You automatically compare him to the biggest piece of dogshit in the majors when he hasn't performed that poorly? Compare him to Silva after he has a shit year like Silva.

He's comparing him to Silva in the fact that they're both extremely hittable pitchers who will always walk a tight line because of their lack of being able to miss bats. Could he have found a better comp...sure. But once there on the mound they both are pretty similar.

He's not ripping on Blackburn, he said he likes having him around and I think we all can admit that Blackburn has come through in some big games. But none of us should be shocked if it all fell apart for Blackburn as quickly as it all fell apart for Silva.

[howeda7]

By retaining Pavano and watching Fragile Frankie Liriano return to form in winter ball, their pitching rotation has the chance to be among the best in baseball.

That's some unexpectedly great praise for our rotation, although I wholeheartedly agree with it. I think people get too wrapped up in the disappointment of our rotation from last season and don't realize how high the ceiling can be for our pitching staff. Of course its certainly possible that the ghosts of the past can cause guys like Pavano and Liriano to stumble, but we've got some big upside at all 5 spots, and if things go just right we might very well have one of the best 1-5 rotations in baseball.

I dunno, Blackburn's bust potential scares me and the Twins don't really have much in terms of quality depth. I'm nervous about the rotation. Rest of the team looks great though.

What does Blackburn have to do to please you people?? His #'s the last two year's couldn't BE any more identical. And he's been absolutely huge in big games. We cry and cry for an ace. But tell me, in 2008 game 163, and the 2009 games Blackburn pitched against Detroit, Kansas City and in Game 2 of the ALDS, how much better would say Johan Santana have pitched in those 4 games then Blackburn? Arguably not at all. The comparison to Silva based entirely on being a sinker-baller doesn't fly to me. And Silva never came through when it counted the way that Blackburn has the last two years. Some things can't be measured by a formula.

Is he going to go out and win 20 games? No. Does he have 'upside' verusus his 2008 and 2009 #'s? Probably not much. No instead he'll give us 33 starts, 200 innings and an ERA of 4.10. He'll probably also be clutch when we need him the most. I don't care what his SABR stats say, I'll take that every time.

[jewscott]

How about you compare Blackburn to someone that actually is not a fat sack of crap, you know like Joe Blanton perhaps? Someone that actually is a good comp for Blackburn.

Given Blanton struck out nearly two years worth of batters for Blackburn last year and has never had batters hit higher than .284 off of him (where Blackburn has had never been below .291 against), are they really all that similar?

[FrodaddyG]

How about you compare Blackburn to someone that actually is not a fat sack of crap, you know like Joe Blanton perhaps? Someone that actually is a good comp for Blackburn.

Joe Blanton - 6'3" 244 lbs
Carlos Silva - 6'4" 250 lbs.

[VodkaDave]

How about you compare Blackburn to someone that actually is not a fat sack of crap, you know like Joe Blanton perhaps? Someone that actually is a good comp for Blackburn.

Joe Blanton - 6'3" 244 lbs
Carlos Silva - 6'4" 250 lbs.

Blanton is fat, but not a sack of crap.

Also I saw Silva listed at 225 on Bbreference, that cant be right?

[Great Canadian Twins Fan]

Also I saw Silva listed at 225 on Bbreference, that cant be right?

Pretty sure that's 225 kg.

[alskntwnsfn]

I thought I remembered Blackburn using that cutter a lot more at the end of the season. Hopefully he's been working on that this winter. That could be a really tough pitch for him. Also, I think he throws harder than Silva did during the end of his Twins tenure. Appears to be a hard worker. Takes direction, etc. Twins type of player. I wouldn't be too worried about him taking innings from Perkins, Manship, or Duensing. I think he's got better stuff than those guys, regardless of what hand uses to sign his checks.

[TheLeviathan]

How about you compare Blackburn to someone that actually is not a fat sack of crap, you know like Joe Blanton perhaps? Someone that actually is a good comp for Blackburn.

Joe Blanton - 6'3" 244 lbs
Carlos Silva - 6'4" 250 lbs.

Blanton is fat, but not a sack of crap.

Also I saw Silva listed at 225 on Bbreference, that cant be right?

He's been known to be a sack of crap too. It's not like his career his a shining beacon of light - 2006 and 2008 were not exactly banner years for Blanton either.

2006 OAK 32 31 16 12 0 0 0 1 1 194.1 241 111 104 17 58 107 4.82 1.54 .309
2008 OAK 20 20 5 12 0 0 0 0 0 127.0 145 74 70 12 35 62 4.96 1.42 .284
2008 PHI 13 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 70.2 66 36 33 10 31 49 4.20 1.37 .246

And actually jwe, you can see that Blanton did post a Blackburn-like year at .309 in 2006.

[slpBaseb12]

I thought I remembered Blackburn using that cutter a lot more at the end of the season. Hopefully he's been working on that this winter. That could be a really tough pitch for him. Also, I think he throws harder than Silva did during the end of his Twins tenure. Appears to be a hard worker. Takes direction, etc. Twins type of player. I wouldn't be too worried about him taking innings from Perkins, Manship, or Duensing. I think he's got better stuff than those guys, regardless of what hand uses to sign his checks.

I remember that too, and he's going to need that cutter in order to get left handed hitters out. Blackburn can use his fastball to get right-handers out, but the league's lefties will eventually catch up and destroy him if he doesn't figure out how to get a pitch in on their hands.

[jewscott]

He's been known to be a sack of crap too. It's not like his career his a shining beacon of light - 2006 and 2008 were not exactly banner years for Blanton either.

Easy there. No one ever said that Blanton was an All-Star. Simply that comparing a pitcher who throws 80% fastballs/cut fastballs with zero secondary pitches to one like Blanton who throws softer but makes up for it by having a plus slider and changeup and an okay curveball isn't the right course of action.

Blackburn is fine as a back-end starter. So is Blanton. The difference is if the fastball goes, Blanton can conceivably survive it by riding his other pitches. If Blackburn's fastball goes, it's a recipe for disaster. Kind of like how Silva has been a complete disaster since his fastball left him.

[Nick N.]

Also, I think he throws harder than Silva did during the end of his Twins tenure.

It's easy enough to check these things, you know. Silva averaged 91.1 MPH with his fastball in his last year with the Twins, Blackburn averaged 90.6 MPH last year.

[TheLeviathan]

Easy there. No one ever said that Blanton was an All-Star. Simply that comparing a pitcher who throws 80% fastballs/cut fastballs with zero secondary pitches to one like Blanton who throws softer but makes up for it by having a plus slider and changeup and an okay curveball isn't the right course of action.

Blackburn is fine as a back-end starter. So is Blanton. The difference is if the fastball goes, Blanton can conceivably survive it by riding his other pitches. If Blackburn's fastball goes, it's a recipe for disaster. Kind of like how Silva has been a complete disaster since his fastball left him.

Jwe, I wasn't responding with that part to you, but to the contention that somehow Blanton isn't a slob himself in many ways.

Blanton and Blackburn have fairly similar career numbers with the exception of the K/BBs. Blackburn is a little better inducing groundballs but most of their peripherals are pretty similar. Blackburn has a little more potential bust in him because of his secondary pitches so I agree with you and Nick on that.