Mauer and .400 revisited

[lambo_asdf]

Mega-Hunk Joe Mauer went 3 for 3 tonight, raising his average to .375 (129 hits in 344 at bats). The chase for .400 appears to be on again.

No one will be shocked to hear that Mauer's 396 plate appearances put him well on track to qualify for the batting title. Since debuting on May 1, Mauer has chalked up three DNPs and six games in which he entered off the bench and had one or two at bats. However, two of those DNPs and two of those pinch-hit games were in May, so I'm going to assume that June-present is Mauer's current playing pattern. The Twins have 47 games left, so I'm expecting Mauer to miss one game and pinch hit in two (averaging 1.2 PA in those pinch hit games). Mauer is averaging 4.56 PA in games started.

That would mean that Mauer would have 203 more PA this year (easily topping the 502 qualifying number at 599). Mauer walks about 11.3% of the time, and also has a sac fly or HBP about 1.5% of the time. If we remove this 12.8% chance of a walk/SF/HBP taking up a PA, we get Mauer having 177 more at bats on the year, putting his season total at 521. Batting .400 out of 521 is 209 hits (208 does not round up, either). Mauer would have to get 80 more hits in 177 at bats to bat .400; an outlandish .452 for about a six-week stretch.

How unlikely is that? Let's imagine that Mega-Hunk Joe Mauer's probability of getting a hit is .334, his batting average from 2006 onward. Doing a chi-square test, we can estimate the probability that a .334 hitter would hit .452 in 177 at bats (in other words, the probability that when we expect Mauer to get 59 hits, he actually gets 80). The chi-square test gives the probability at 0.62%. In other words, about 1 in 161 times. Because of all of the different estimations going into the measurement, it's probably only safe to say that the chances are somewhere between 1 in 100 and 1 in 300.

So Mauer hitting .400 isn't quite out of the realm of possibility yet, but it's pretty unlikely. It's highly dependent on how he does in the next few games, as well. If his average dips to much below .370 in the next few games, it would be all but impossible for him to get it back up to .400.

[lambo_asdf]

Also, if you were convinced that Mauer's 2007 season was injury-affected and assumed he was a actually a .346 hitter (average of 2006, 2008, and 2009), the odds improve almost tenfold to about 1 in 61. If you were pessimistic and assumed that his career .325 is his true performance level, the odds would decrease to 1 in 333. Estimating performance level is the most important part of this exercise, and it's also the hardest thing to do (the actual number of at bats matter little compared to performance level, though the more there at bats in this case actually increases the chance that Mauer hits .400 [though there is a certain equilibrium point at which more at bats would start to hurt his chances]).

[DavidWatts]

JoePa and Mauer's .400 quest
http://joeposnanski.com/JoeBlog/2009/08 ... -gotta-do/

[lambo_asdf]

Mauer 2 for 2. If he's got 175 at bats left, he'll need 78 more hits. Here's the updated probabilities, based on various expected batting averages:

.325: 1 in 196
.334: 1 in 95
.346: 1 in 40
.379: 1 in 6.5

As I said, the probability is highly dependent on the most recent data. Just going 2 for 2 raised the worst-case probability from 1 in 333 to 1 in 196.

[lambo_asdf]

3 for 5, now hitting .380. If he's got 163 at bats left, he'll need 73 more hits (.448). Here's the updated probabilities, based on various expected batting averages:

.325: 1 in 168
.334: 1 in 84
.346: 1 in 37
.380: 1 in 6.25

[Hornhead]

And to think all I was hanging onto for this season was Joe winning another batting title and the Intangibles taking the Danny Hocking crown. Now I have one more item to add to my possibilities of being let down

[lambo_asdf]

Another 3 for 5 night, and Mauer is now hitting .383. If he's got 158 at bats left, he'll need 70 more hits (.443). Here's the updated probabilities, based on various expected batting averages:

.325: 1 in 108
.334: 1 in 56
.346: 1 in 26
.383: 1 in 4.5

[username]

Another 3 for 5 night, and Mauer is now hitting .383. If he's got 158 at bats left, he'll need 70 more hits (.443). Here's the updated probabilities, based on various expected batting averages:

.325: 1 in 108
.334: 1 in 56
.346: 1 in 26
.383: 1 in 4.5

is it not possible to figure out the probability of .400 or something?

[kab21]

is it not possible to figure out the probability of .400 or something?

That is the probability of Mauer hitting .400. The different probabilities listed are for what level of hitter you think Mauer's natural ability could attain over an infinite sample size. Do you think Mauer is .325 hitter over an infinitely long sample (forget about aging effects) or a .346 hitter (or is he naturally better than that)?

[lambo_asdf]

The reason I'm using those particular averages are because they are Mauer's career average, average since 2006, average since 2006 removing the bad 2007 season, and current season average. I tried to pick four averages that represented good levels of Kool Aid drinkage.

[lambo_asdf]

Mauer is now batting .378.

.326: 1 in 243
.334: 1 in 131
.346: 1 in 57
.378: 1 in 10

[lambo_asdf]

Since our favorite Baby Jesus is now batting in the .370s again, I thought I'd resurrect this thread just to show that Mauer pretty much can't do it. 521 ABs still seems to be a good estimate (it's exactly what ESPN is predicting now). He has 46 AB left and must get 32 hits. As Bert would tell us, that's a "very good" .696 batting average. The chance of even a .373 hitter batting .696 in 46 ABs is about 1 in 5000.

Even if Mauer goes 10 for 10 in his next 10 ABs, he'd still have 22 hits to go in 36 ABs, and the odds of doing that are about 1 in 50. The ship has sailed.

[Justanotherfan]

When Mauer wins another batting title, is he a lock for the HOF?

[VodkaDave]

When Mauer wins another batting title, is he a lock for the HOF?

no.
He needs a minimum of 7-8 more good-great seasons to be a hall of fame player.

[Hornhead]

He has 46 AB left and must get 32 hits. As Bert would tell us, that's a "very good" .696 batting average. The chance of even a .373 hitter batting .696 in 46 ABs is about 1 in 5000.

So you're saying a chance.

[Justanotherfan]

When Mauer wins another batting title, is he a lock for the HOF?

no.
He needs a minimum of 7-8 more good-great seasons to be a hall of fame player.

Being the first catcher to win a batting title and doing 3 times in 4 years is a pretty remarkable feat. I guess he is not too close yet, but I am guessing that number will increase quite a bit at the start of next season.

Hall Of Fame Statistics
Player rank in (·)

Black Ink Batting - 8 (283), Average HOFer ≈ 27
Gray Ink Batting - 13 (1238), Average HOFer ≈ 144
Hall of Fame Monitor Batting - 52 (365), Likely HOFer ≈ 100
Hall of Fame Standards Batting - 29 (297), Average HOFer ≈ 50

[kab21]

Since our favorite Baby Jesus is now batting in the .370s again, I thought I'd resurrect this thread just to show that Mauer pretty much can't do it. 521 ABs still seems to be a good estimate (it's exactly what ESPN is predicting now). He has 46 AB left and must get 32 hits. As Bert would tell us, that's a "very good" .696 batting average. The chance of even a .373 hitter batting .696 in 46 ABs is about 1 in 5000.

Even if Mauer goes 10 for 10 in his next 10 ABs, he'd still have 22 hits to go in 36 ABs, and the odds of doing that are about 1 in 50. The ship has sailed.

My fantasy team would love this though.

[StatFreak101]

When Mauer wins another batting title, is he a lock for the HOF?

As for now, he is not a 'lock.' But assuming Mauer remains relatively healthy and continues to do what he has done, he is about as close to a Hall of Fame lock as there is in the game right now...along with guys like Pujols, A-Rod, etc.

[Justanotherfan]

When Mauer wins another batting title, is he a lock for the HOF?

As for now, he is not a 'lock.' But assuming Mauer remains relatively healthy and continues to do what he has done, he is about as close to a Hall of Fame lock as there is in the game right now...along with guys like Pujols, A-Rod, etc.

You would think A-Rod would get the snub because of the steroid issue. I think I would pick Captain America over A-rod any day. Of course I am not sure if the steroid debacle will really have any adverse effects on voting or not.

[Vervehound]

When Mauer wins another batting title, is he a lock for the HOF?

As for now, he is not a 'lock.' But assuming Mauer remains relatively healthy and continues to do what he has done, he is about as close to a Hall of Fame lock as there is in the game right now...along with guys like Pujols, A-Rod, etc.

You would think A-Rod would get the snub because of the steroid issue. I think I would pick Captain America over A-rod any day. Of course I am not sure if the steroid debacle will really have any adverse effects on voting or not.

mauer's uniqueness as a player gives him incredible leverage. barring injury, he'll reach 1,000 hits next season and would likely only need a 2,000 hit career to be hof worthy.

[a-wan]

mauer's uniqueness as a player gives him incredible leverage. barring injury, he'll reach 1,000 hits next season and would likely only need a 2,000 hit career to be hof worthy.

How long until he gets to Harold Baines hit status?