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The latest news for the Twins is that Danny Valencia was rear ended at crosstown by none other than Denard Span. If I was to write a book, titled The Season From Hell and used the Twins season to write it, people would criticize it as unrealistic and over the top. This is the type of year that it is impossible to make up.

For those that are unware, here is a breakdown of the Twins opening day 25 man roster, and their injuries.

Catcher Joe Mauer. No player on the Twins has received more press for his injuries since Kirby Puckett. His mysterious Bi-lateral leg weakness caused him to spend time on the 60 day DL after struggling early in the season. He has yet to recover fully, and is now shutdown for the season with Pneumonia. It remains to be seen what will happen during the off-season. No player on the Twins roster will be more scrutinized over the off-season.

First Baseman Justin Morneau: Lingering concussion symptoms caused him to miss the majority of the season as well. It’s beginning to make fans question if he’ll ever be 100% again. Concussions have been been at the forefront of many star athletes missing time and careers of players such as Corey Koskie have been ended by the dreaded Post-Concussion Syndrome. The Twins are considering a switch for Morneau to DH full time in the future due to his recent aggravation of concussion symptoms by simply diving for a ground ball.

Second Baseman Tsuyoshi Nishioka: A hard slide breaking up a double play attempt by the Japanese Import led to a fractured fibula stopping his season before it ever had a chance to start. After the injury he has struggled to adjust to the American game and was recently shut down for the season due to a back injury.

Short Stop Alexi Casilla: After a slow start, Casilla was finally beginning to show the potential that has led the Twins to think he may have a chance to be a starting middle infielder. But a strained hamstring shut him down in July which he re-aggravated in August.

Third Baseman Danny Valencia: Up until recently he was the model of health for the Minnesota Twins, but his recent fender bender puts his season away from the DL in jeopardy. Reports are that his injuries are not serious. But we’ve heard that story before, I’ll wait till he returns to the lineup to believe it.

Left Fielder Delmon Young: Sore ribs and a poor attitude sent Delmon Young to the DL in April. A sprained ankle in June led to a 2nd DL stint. He was eventually traded to Detroit after the waiver deadline and has remained healthy there.

Center Fielder Denard Span: His bat was the lone bright spot for the Twins early in the season before a concussion wiped out the majority of his 2011 season. After his first game back followingr a re-aggravation of concussion symptoms Denard Span rear ended a teammate, and is now experiencing concussion symptoms yet again.

Right Fielder Michael Cuddyer: Cuddyer has also managed to spend most of the season off the DL. He was an extremely valuable player for the Twins, seeing time at First, 2nd, RF, LF, and even pitched. A bruised wrist after being hit by a pitch has kept him out of several games late in the season, but has yet to see the DL.

Designated Hitter 1 Jason Kubel: A sprained Left Foot sent Jason Kubel to the DL at the end of May.
Designated Hitter 2 Jim Thome; The man who hit 600 had two DL stitns in May and June for an Oblique strain and Quad strain respectively.

Starting Pitcher Fransisco Liriano: Shoulder Inflammation sent Liriano to the DL. His no hitter was one of the lone bright spots for this season. He also was on the DL in late August with a shoulder strain.

Starting Pitcher Carl Pavano: Despite not posting great numbers Pavano has managed to stay away from the disabled list.

Starting Pitcher Scott Baker: Elbow injuries sent Baker to the DL 3 times this season de-railing a very solid season.

Starting Pitcher Brian Duensing: Stayed healthy this season, but did leave a start with an oblique strain.

Starting Pitcher Nick Blackburn: A strained Right forearm shut down Blackburn’s season in August.

Closer Joe Nathan: A flexor strain sent the struggling Joe Nathan to the DL in May

Relief Pitcher Glen Perkins: An Oblique strain in May sent the twins most consistent reliever to the DL in late may

Other Injuries:
Jason Repko – Shoulder Bursistus
Jose Mijares – Elbow Strain
Kevin Slowey – Bicep Soreness, Abdominal Strain
Kyle Gibson: Tommy John Surgery

So what does this all mean? The Twins rarely saw their starting lineup together at any point in this season, and in a season where they set a record for payroll they are on pace to lose 100 games. I believe something needs to change. The Twins off-season workouts need to be amped up by players and they should come into spring training in better shape. The training staff should also be examined to see if there is anything they are doing wrong that is causing these injuries.

There is reason for optimism next season. Because simply put, they can’t get any worse.

Ten days ago, Patrick Reusse wrote an article, quoting Ron Gardenhire extensively, that stated the case for Michael Cuddyer to be the Twins’ sole representative in the 2011 All-Star Game. Reusse pointed out that the Twins had to have someone, that Cuddyer was putting up decent numbers and that he could fill the role of utility player on the AL team. Reaction was pretty mixed, but also pretty intense. Many pointed to two other position players–Denard Span and Jason Kubel–and made claims that one of those guys would be a superior representative to Cuddyer. Many questioned Cuddyer’s worth, mentioning that his defense was subpar wherever he played and that he was a bad hitter in the clutch. Some thought a pitcher–Blackburn or Baker–would be a better representative. Another segment thought that Cuddyer deserved the honor. The strib poll that accompanied the article showed that a plurality thought Cuddyer should be the Twins’ representative.

Today, it has become apparent that if a Twins  position player goes to Arizona for the All-Star game it will be Michael Cuddyer. Cuddyer is among the team leaders in just about every offensive category. He’s even second on the team in stolen bases. Kubel and Span have not seen the field in weeks and there is still no solid timetable for either to return to action. The biggest reason for Cuddyer’s prospects to brighten is that he has been performing like an All-Star. His overall numbers now are very good. His slash line for the season now is .352/.465/.817. That is an OPS+ of about 120. For the month of June only, Cuddy the Amazing is OPSing 1.117, with a league-leading 10 doubles, 5 homers and 16 RBI. In his current 12-game hitting streak, he has had a minimum of 2 total bases in each game.

Much of what goes into All-Star selections is ridiculous: letting the manager get his players in the game, lousy selections by the fans squeezing out deserving players, a glut of deserving players at one particular position or one team’s best option also playing the same position. Any of those factors could push Cuddyer out of the running. Some factors favor the Twins right fielder/infielder: he is a veteran who has had some fine seasons, he is regarded as a good guy and finally is not likely to fall apart and make the All-Star selection look comically inept (an example would be Dave Engle for the Twins in ’84).

Blackburn and Baker have continued to put up strong numbers, but the competition on the pitching staff will be intense and B & B aren’t on top of the charts in wins, ERA or strikeouts and there is a higher chance that either could bomb in the second half–Blackburn was sent to AAA last year and Baker pitched his way out of the playoff rotation. Plus one bad outing for a starter could make very good stats look pathetic, ask Madison Bumgarner.

The question of whether Cuddyer should continue with the Twins beyond this year or maybe even beyond the trading deadline is out there too. It really shouldn’t have any effect on Ron Washington’s All-Star decision. Count me among those who will be satisfied with the selection of Michael Cuddyer as an All-Star next month.

Most fans around the country know Bert Blyleven as the colorful (perhaps off-color) Dutch pyromaniac who also happened to retire with the third-most strikeouts of all time.  Honkbal enthusiasts everywhere know Bert’s 12-6 curve (2:00 mark), his love of farting, and his legendary ability to surrender homers (96 allowed in a two-year span). But Twins fans know that his command of that knee-buckling curve is rivaled only by his command of the English language.

So in honor of our favorite fucking color analyst’s impending Hall of Fame induction, Battle Your Tail Off is counting down the best Blylevenisms! Sit back, enjoy, and ignore that growing heat on top of your foot. We’ve got 24 prime Blylevenisms set to come. Today, for your reading pleasure, we have a preview of the top-24 mixed with a few Blylevenisms that were left on the cutting-room floor, all presented in the style of Amiri Baraka’s play Dutchman.

The setting: A small broadcast booth in a baseball stadium. Several cameramen and film editors are nervously sitting around. A wholesome, Christian-looking man, DICK, is sitting with his back upright. It is unclear if DICK‘s hair is a toupee. Next to him sits BERT, who is obviously comfortable, chatting loudly with several of the cameramen about nothing in particular and using easy profanity, much to the obvious chagrin of the cameramen.

The scene starts as one of the cameramen begins to speak while cuing cheesy sports theme music.

CAMERAMAN: Okay, we are live in 5, 4, 3…

DICK: Welcome Twins fans to Baltimore. We’re here at Camden Yards for today’s game between the Twins and the Orioles. The Twins are on a three-game winning streak and looking to continue it today against Jeremy Guthrie. On the hill today for the Twins is Scott Baker.

DICK continues to drone on about the lineups and recent stats, etc. BERT appears distracted.

BERT: Flustered. Oh, we’re live? Jeremy Guthrie is going for Baltimore today. Came up with Cleveland in 2004. This is his fourth year at the Major League level. He’ll throw all four pitches, a fastball, a little slider, a curveball, and a very good changeup. So far on the year he is 3-1 with a very good 3.15 ERA. He won’t overwhelm you, but he’s got very good command. A control-type pitcher.

DICK begins to drone on again. The scene fades to the top of the second inning…

DICK: …drove in the winning run on Tuesday. And now here’s Rondell White with one out. Batting .115 on the year.

BERT: This is his fifteenth year at the Major League level.

DICK: Takes strike one on the outer half.

BERT: Good pitch right there. That’s a call you like to get as a pitcher. You want to work the ball on that outer half of the plate. He got on top of it and got that good downward plane.

DICK: Here’s the pitch.  Changeup, just a bit low. Ball one.

BERT: That’s what you want to do as a pitcher. Add and subtract, show that hitter different speeds right there.

DICK: Now Rondell fouls one off and out of play down the third-base line.

BERT: That’s an out in Oakland.

DICK: The pitch. In the dirt, two balls, two strikes.

BERT: 2-2 count. You want something to happen right here.

DICK: Is that a call?

BERT: I think it is.

DICK: Here’s the pitch. Little blooper, Roberts isn’t going to get to it. Base hit!

BERT: Duck fart! He just dropped the barrel of the bat and hit that ball the other way.

DICK: So the Twins with one gone have a runner on first.

The replay of Rondell’s hit comes on.

BERT: With that inside-out swing he just took it the other way. Just out of the reach of Roberts, a Rawlings Gold Glove winner.

DICK: Now here’s Jason Kubel.

BERT: Just came off of the disabullist. This is his third year at the Major League level.

DICK: Here’s the pitch. Swung on! A long drive!

BERT: Interrupting. TOMMYHAWK!

DICK: And that ball is gone! A two-run home run for Jason Kubel. And the Twins lead 2-0.

BERT: Kubel, with that upper-cut swing! Got a breaking ball and did not miss it.

The replay plays several more times.

BERT: Did I call that?

DICK: I thought you made the call during Rondell White’s at bat.

BERT: By my California math, I called it.

DICK: That…doesn’t make any sense.

BERT: Becoming irate. You are hereby circled.

DICK: What?

BERT: It’s only 74 days until my birthday. Buck Sherwalter!

DICK makes a cut signal to the cameramen across his neck.

BERT: Here, kitty, kitty, kitty!

BERT attempts to stab DICK with the sharp end of a broken maple bat. As the cameramen help DICK escape, BERT makes his way towards the Orioles’ broadcast booth.

Fade to black.

Fin.

Sorry for the delay – job interviews and moving are two of the least fun activities in life, and I’ve been dealing with both.  Without further ado . . .

“Number 1” Starters

1.  Justin Verlander, Tigers.  After a rough 2008 season, Verlander has bounced back with two consecutive monster seasons, averaging 232 IP, a 3.41 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and 244 strikeouts over 2009-2010.  He’s thrown over 200 innings for 4 consecutive seasons.  He’s the epitome of a workhorse, he’s 28 years old, and he’s clearly the best starting pitcher in the division heading into 2011.

2.  Francisco Liriano, Twins.  Liriano is definitely the highest-risk/highest-reward pitcher of this group with his injury history, groundball tendencies and ability to get strikeouts.  Everyone seems to be aware by this point that his peripherals last year indicated he was one of the unluckiest starters in baseball, so here’s to hoping Liriano’s mound presence improves and he takes that next step to become a “true #1” (and please, don’t start another 150 post thread arguing the semantics of what it means to be a “#1 starter,” or an “ace,” or whatever.  You get the point).

3.  John Danks, White Sox.  A solid, very good pitcher that will be 26 years old this season, yet may have reached his peak.  His numbers over his last 3 seasons have remained relatively constant: an ERA between 3.32 and 3.77; WHIP between 1.22 and 1.28; K/9 between 6.7 and 7.3; and BB/9 between 2.6 and 3.3.  His GB% has slowly crept up since 2008 (from 42.8% to 45.4% last year), so there might be some slight room for improvement for Danks if he can maintain a K/9 above 7.  However, he simply doesn’t have the ceiling that Verlander and Liriano do.

Advantage: Tigers, probably Twins, too.  Production compared to last year: Improvement for Twins, slight improvement or same for Tigers, same for White Sox.

Number 2 Starters

1.  Max Scherzer, Tigers.  Scherzer doesn’t have the track record of the other two listed here, but he has, by far and away, the highest ceiling, and he appeared to have turned a significant corner last season.  After posting a 9.45 ERA in May, he was sent to the minors for a couple starts, and after his return in June, he posted a 2.46 ERA over his final 23 starts, showing the type of dominant stuff that made him a top prospect.  He has an injury history and has never quite put a full season together yet, but I’d take him over anybody else below.

2.  Gavin Floyd, White Sox.  From my fantasy baseball experience, I know Floyd is usually really bad in April and May, and often goes on a hot streak from there.  All in all, the underlying statistics suggest that Floyd has been unlucky for 2 seasons, with a FIP of 3.77 and 3.46 (ERA of 4.06 & 4.08) in 2009 & ’10.  Notably, Floyd posted a career-best .67 HR/9 ratio last year, fueled by his improved ability to induce groundballs (50% GB%, a 5 percent increase over his career average).  With a more consistent April and May, he could turn out to be the best of this group.

3.  Carl Pavano, Twins.  Pavano is sort of the anti-Scherzer. There’s something to be said about consistency, control, and guile, and Pavano has it.  He doesn’t light up the radar gun and strike people out, but he doesn’t walk anybody, either, with a K/9 and BB/9 last year of 4.76 and 1.51, respectively.  He may have gotten a little lucky with a .281 BABIP last year, but his FIP and xFIP over the last two seasons suggest he’s a pitcher that’ll give you a 3.95 ERA over 210 innings, which is awfully valuable over the course of a 162-game regular season.  In a best-of-5 playoff series, not as valuable, but that’s a separate discussion.  Behold the power of the stache!

Slight Advantage: Tigers.  Production compared to last year: Slight improvements for Tigers and White Sox, same for Twins.

#3 Starters

1.  Scott Baker, Twins.  Fans love to hate on “Moon Shot” T. Scott Baker because it’s easy to bag on a guy who gives up so many homeruns.  However, his FIP and xFIP from last season were well over a half run lower than his 4.49 ERA, fueled mostly by a BABIP 20 points higher than his career average (.323 vs. .303) and slightly elevated HR/FB%.  Baker will always give up homeruns because he’s such a fly-ball pitcher (career 34% GB%), but he has the K rate and BB rate to perform significantly better than he has the past two seasons (7.82 K/9 and 2.27 BB/9 last year, respectively).

2.  Mark Buehrle, White Sox.  At this point, Buehrle is sort of a slightly-poorer man’s left-handed and more durable version of Pavano.  10 straight seasons over 200 innings is awfully impressive.

3.  Rick Porcello, Tigers.  I should have put Pavano in this group – then I would have had the low strikeout, low walk guys all in one group.  Seriously though, Porcello looks like the 22-year old version of Pavano and Buehrle: career 4.67 K/9 and 2.43 BB/9.  He sports a 52% GB%, and he’ll need to improve that and/or his K rate to improve on his career 4.55 FIP.

Advantage: Twins.  Production compared to last year: Improvement for Twins, same for White Sox & Tigers.

#4 Starters

1.  Brian Duensing, Twins.  Yes, his peripherals suggest he’s been lucky for 2 straight seasons, but let’s not dismiss the guy as a candidate to get demoted, either.  His FIP and xFIP last year were 3.85 and 3.96, which is great for a back-of-the rotation starter.  Duensing lowered his walk rate (3.32 BB/9 in ’09 to 2.41) and improved his groundball rate (45.5 GB% to 52.9) significantly last season, and if he simply maintains those rates this season over the course of 30-33 starts, he’ll be an excellent #4 starter.

2.  Edwin Jackson, White Sox.  Well-known for his incredible inconsistency, Jackson is basically a wild-card on any given day.  He can throw no-hitters or give up 8 runs in 2 innings (Last year, he gave up 18 earned runs over 6.1 innings between 2 starts on 4/27 and 5/2; threw a no-hitter on June 25^th; then gave up 22 earned runs over his next 27.1 innings (5 starts).  And at the end of the season, he’ll most likely give you 200 innings of a 4.5-ish ERA (career 4.62 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 4.52 xFIP).  I’m just glad he’s not a Twin.

3.  Brad Penny, Tigers.  He hasn’t been good since 2007.  A strained lat muscle limited him to 9 starts last season, and although his numbers weren’t bad over 55 innings for the Cardinals (3.23 ERA), he’s easily the #1 candidate to be absolutely terrible in this group.

Advantage: Twins.  Production compared to last year: Regression for Twins, same for White Sox, possible improvement for Tigers? (had Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis(!) in their rotation to start the 2010 season).

#5 Starters

1.  Nick Blackburn (/Kevin Slowey/Kyle Gibson).  Give me the healthy guy who is able to use his slider again after not being able to throw it last season over the other two crapshoots below.  Blackburn’s xFIP over the last 3 seasons: 4.42, 4.48, 4.46.  If he can get his K/9 back up over 4 and his BB/9 back under 2 like his ’08 & ’09 seasons (should be doable with his slider again), he should be good enough at the back end of the rotation.  And if not, Slowey and/or Gibson should be ready to step in.

2.  Jake Peavy/Phil Humber.  Peavy had surgery to repair a detached muscle in his shoulder, and he’s essentially trying to come back from an injury that no pitcher has ever tried to come back from before.  He’s more of a crapshoot than Nishioka & Nathan combined at this point, although the White Sox are hopeful he can be back by the end of April, I’d take the under on 20 starts.  And, as we know all too well, Philip Humber sucks.  How’s that for educated analysis?

3.  Phil Coke, Tigers.  He had a 3.76 ERA and 1.44 WHIP last year as a reliever (ERA of 4 facing right-handers over 36 innings).  It seems reasonable that his K rate (7.38 K/9) will go down and walk rate (3.62 BB/9) would go up as a starter, and hence, his ERA will go up, as well.  Even if they don’t, Coke has a 35% GB% over the last two seasons (120 innings) as a reliever; he’ll give up a fair share of home runs.  Hard to see a C.J. Wilson-type transition from this guy.

Advantage: Twins.  Production compared to last year: Improvement for Twins, probable improvement for Tigers (Dontrelle Willis/Armando Galarraga), regression for White Sox.

I’ll try to do something for the bullpens soon.  In the meantime, Happy Opening Day and GO TWINS!!

For a while I have wanted to do a little column to talk about Fantasy Baseball (with a Twins-centric approach of course).  For the next few weeks I am going to write a few different columns.  Enjoy:

One of my favorite tools for examining fantasy baseball players is by comparing mystery players against each other.  This is one of the best ways of taking the “name brand” out of the equation.

Let’s take this one:

From the title of this piece, I am sure that you can gather that Delmon Young is one of the players.  If you guessed this, you would be correct—Mr. Young is player A.  He had a solid campaign last year for fantasy owners, providing value across the board.  However, his numbers have not translated to any roto respect in drafts this year.  His Average Draft Position (ADP) according to MockDraftCentral.com is a mere 116.92, which means that he is going (on average) in the 11th round.

Meanwhile, player B in this exercise has an ADP of 4.94 and is a sure-fire first rounder.  As you may have now guessed, player B is Evan Longoria.  Both players come from a highly touted pedigree.  Both players are 25 years old and are on strong-offensive teams.

What gives?

Sure, we could bring up the obligatory incident involving Delmon, his bat, and an umpire, but that happened so long ago (and not to mention, umpires are notorious racists).

Position scarcity certainly has something to do with it, but does 3B eligibility really make Longoria a first rounder and Young a middle round pick?

I am not suggesting that you pick Delmon Young in the first round, nor am I suggesting that he is more valuable than Longoria.  Longoria is an established player and offers more speed on the bases.  Additionally, he is a 3B in a year when Mark Reynolds and his sub-.200 average is one of the better bets at the hot corner.  However, I am suggesting that you consider Delmon in your fantasy draft, because he is being vastly underrated.

Let’s first look at Delmon’s BABIP.  From 2007 to 2009 he was the definition of consistency as he posted the same exact BABIP each year (.338).  Last year, his BABIP dropped 26 points to .312…yikes!  We can expect to see an improvement at the plate, just by virtue of a normalized BABIP next year.

Delmon also was able to improve his K and BB rates in 2010.  In fact, Young lowered his strikeout rate to a career low.  Will these trends continue?  I guess that is the fun of fantasy baseball.

Finally, all reports of Justin Morneau’s  healthy are looking good.  A healthy Morneau in the lineup will  give Young more pitches to hit.  Interestingly enough, Young’s second half slump coincided with Morneau’s absence from the lineup.  I am sure that there were other factors involved there, but a healthy Morneau is good for everyones numbers.

Young, by virtue of his lack of patience and fielding, will always be one of those guys who is a better fantasy player than a real baseball player.  However, this can make him an absolute bargain come draft day and he is a worthwhile addition to any fantasy baseball squad.