“It’s OK little guy. It took me about 5 years to get Gardy to like me, now he thinks I’m his son.”

Michael Cuddyer performs the levitating player/bat gag.

“Hey Joe, let me know if you need anymore bullpen management tips.”

“Hey Ron, go @$#% yourself.”

Sorry for the delay – job interviews and moving are two of the least fun activities in life, and I’ve been dealing with both.  Without further ado . . .

“Number 1” Starters

1.  Justin Verlander, Tigers.  After a rough 2008 season, Verlander has bounced back with two consecutive monster seasons, averaging 232 IP, a 3.41 ERA, a 1.17 WHIP, and 244 strikeouts over 2009-2010.  He’s thrown over 200 innings for 4 consecutive seasons.  He’s the epitome of a workhorse, he’s 28 years old, and he’s clearly the best starting pitcher in the division heading into 2011.

2.  Francisco Liriano, Twins.  Liriano is definitely the highest-risk/highest-reward pitcher of this group with his injury history, groundball tendencies and ability to get strikeouts.  Everyone seems to be aware by this point that his peripherals last year indicated he was one of the unluckiest starters in baseball, so here’s to hoping Liriano’s mound presence improves and he takes that next step to become a “true #1” (and please, don’t start another 150 post thread arguing the semantics of what it means to be a “#1 starter,” or an “ace,” or whatever.  You get the point).

3.  John Danks, White Sox.  A solid, very good pitcher that will be 26 years old this season, yet may have reached his peak.  His numbers over his last 3 seasons have remained relatively constant: an ERA between 3.32 and 3.77; WHIP between 1.22 and 1.28; K/9 between 6.7 and 7.3; and BB/9 between 2.6 and 3.3.  His GB% has slowly crept up since 2008 (from 42.8% to 45.4% last year), so there might be some slight room for improvement for Danks if he can maintain a K/9 above 7.  However, he simply doesn’t have the ceiling that Verlander and Liriano do.

Advantage: Tigers, probably Twins, too.  Production compared to last year: Improvement for Twins, slight improvement or same for Tigers, same for White Sox.

Number 2 Starters

1.  Max Scherzer, Tigers.  Scherzer doesn’t have the track record of the other two listed here, but he has, by far and away, the highest ceiling, and he appeared to have turned a significant corner last season.  After posting a 9.45 ERA in May, he was sent to the minors for a couple starts, and after his return in June, he posted a 2.46 ERA over his final 23 starts, showing the type of dominant stuff that made him a top prospect.  He has an injury history and has never quite put a full season together yet, but I’d take him over anybody else below.

2.  Gavin Floyd, White Sox.  From my fantasy baseball experience, I know Floyd is usually really bad in April and May, and often goes on a hot streak from there.  All in all, the underlying statistics suggest that Floyd has been unlucky for 2 seasons, with a FIP of 3.77 and 3.46 (ERA of 4.06 & 4.08) in 2009 & ’10.  Notably, Floyd posted a career-best .67 HR/9 ratio last year, fueled by his improved ability to induce groundballs (50% GB%, a 5 percent increase over his career average).  With a more consistent April and May, he could turn out to be the best of this group.

3.  Carl Pavano, Twins.  Pavano is sort of the anti-Scherzer. There’s something to be said about consistency, control, and guile, and Pavano has it.  He doesn’t light up the radar gun and strike people out, but he doesn’t walk anybody, either, with a K/9 and BB/9 last year of 4.76 and 1.51, respectively.  He may have gotten a little lucky with a .281 BABIP last year, but his FIP and xFIP over the last two seasons suggest he’s a pitcher that’ll give you a 3.95 ERA over 210 innings, which is awfully valuable over the course of a 162-game regular season.  In a best-of-5 playoff series, not as valuable, but that’s a separate discussion.  Behold the power of the stache!

Slight Advantage: Tigers.  Production compared to last year: Slight improvements for Tigers and White Sox, same for Twins.

#3 Starters

1.  Scott Baker, Twins.  Fans love to hate on “Moon Shot” T. Scott Baker because it’s easy to bag on a guy who gives up so many homeruns.  However, his FIP and xFIP from last season were well over a half run lower than his 4.49 ERA, fueled mostly by a BABIP 20 points higher than his career average (.323 vs. .303) and slightly elevated HR/FB%.  Baker will always give up homeruns because he’s such a fly-ball pitcher (career 34% GB%), but he has the K rate and BB rate to perform significantly better than he has the past two seasons (7.82 K/9 and 2.27 BB/9 last year, respectively).

2.  Mark Buehrle, White Sox.  At this point, Buehrle is sort of a slightly-poorer man’s left-handed and more durable version of Pavano.  10 straight seasons over 200 innings is awfully impressive.

3.  Rick Porcello, Tigers.  I should have put Pavano in this group – then I would have had the low strikeout, low walk guys all in one group.  Seriously though, Porcello looks like the 22-year old version of Pavano and Buehrle: career 4.67 K/9 and 2.43 BB/9.  He sports a 52% GB%, and he’ll need to improve that and/or his K rate to improve on his career 4.55 FIP.

Advantage: Twins.  Production compared to last year: Improvement for Twins, same for White Sox & Tigers.

#4 Starters

1.  Brian Duensing, Twins.  Yes, his peripherals suggest he’s been lucky for 2 straight seasons, but let’s not dismiss the guy as a candidate to get demoted, either.  His FIP and xFIP last year were 3.85 and 3.96, which is great for a back-of-the rotation starter.  Duensing lowered his walk rate (3.32 BB/9 in ’09 to 2.41) and improved his groundball rate (45.5 GB% to 52.9) significantly last season, and if he simply maintains those rates this season over the course of 30-33 starts, he’ll be an excellent #4 starter.

2.  Edwin Jackson, White Sox.  Well-known for his incredible inconsistency, Jackson is basically a wild-card on any given day.  He can throw no-hitters or give up 8 runs in 2 innings (Last year, he gave up 18 earned runs over 6.1 innings between 2 starts on 4/27 and 5/2; threw a no-hitter on June 25^th; then gave up 22 earned runs over his next 27.1 innings (5 starts).  And at the end of the season, he’ll most likely give you 200 innings of a 4.5-ish ERA (career 4.62 ERA, 4.51 FIP, 4.52 xFIP).  I’m just glad he’s not a Twin.

3.  Brad Penny, Tigers.  He hasn’t been good since 2007.  A strained lat muscle limited him to 9 starts last season, and although his numbers weren’t bad over 55 innings for the Cardinals (3.23 ERA), he’s easily the #1 candidate to be absolutely terrible in this group.

Advantage: Twins.  Production compared to last year: Regression for Twins, same for White Sox, possible improvement for Tigers? (had Bonderman and Dontrelle Willis(!) in their rotation to start the 2010 season).

#5 Starters

1.  Nick Blackburn (/Kevin Slowey/Kyle Gibson).  Give me the healthy guy who is able to use his slider again after not being able to throw it last season over the other two crapshoots below.  Blackburn’s xFIP over the last 3 seasons: 4.42, 4.48, 4.46.  If he can get his K/9 back up over 4 and his BB/9 back under 2 like his ’08 & ’09 seasons (should be doable with his slider again), he should be good enough at the back end of the rotation.  And if not, Slowey and/or Gibson should be ready to step in.

2.  Jake Peavy/Phil Humber.  Peavy had surgery to repair a detached muscle in his shoulder, and he’s essentially trying to come back from an injury that no pitcher has ever tried to come back from before.  He’s more of a crapshoot than Nishioka & Nathan combined at this point, although the White Sox are hopeful he can be back by the end of April, I’d take the under on 20 starts.  And, as we know all too well, Philip Humber sucks.  How’s that for educated analysis?

3.  Phil Coke, Tigers.  He had a 3.76 ERA and 1.44 WHIP last year as a reliever (ERA of 4 facing right-handers over 36 innings).  It seems reasonable that his K rate (7.38 K/9) will go down and walk rate (3.62 BB/9) would go up as a starter, and hence, his ERA will go up, as well.  Even if they don’t, Coke has a 35% GB% over the last two seasons (120 innings) as a reliever; he’ll give up a fair share of home runs.  Hard to see a C.J. Wilson-type transition from this guy.

Advantage: Twins.  Production compared to last year: Improvement for Twins, probable improvement for Tigers (Dontrelle Willis/Armando Galarraga), regression for White Sox.

I’ll try to do something for the bullpens soon.  In the meantime, Happy Opening Day and GO TWINS!!