For a while I have wanted to do a little column to talk about Fantasy Baseball (with a Twins-centric approach of course). For the next few weeks I am going to write a few different columns. Enjoy:
One of my favorite tools for examining fantasy baseball players is by comparing mystery players against each other. This is one of the best ways of taking the “name brand” out of the equation.
Let’s take this one:
|
Average |
HR |
R |
RBI |
SB |
| Player A |
.298 |
21 |
77 |
112 |
5 |
| Player B |
.294 |
22 |
96 |
104 |
15 |
From the title of this piece, I am sure that you can gather that Delmon Young is one of the players. If you guessed this, you would be correct—Mr. Young is player A. He had a solid campaign last year for fantasy owners, providing value across the board. However, his numbers have not translated to any roto respect in drafts this year. His Average Draft Position (ADP) according to MockDraftCentral.com is a mere 116.92, which means that he is going (on average) in the 11th round.
Meanwhile, player B in this exercise has an ADP of 4.94 and is a sure-fire first rounder. As you may have now guessed, player B is Evan Longoria. Both players come from a highly touted pedigree. Both players are 25 years old and are on strong-offensive teams.
What gives?
Sure, we could bring up the obligatory incident involving Delmon, his bat, and an umpire, but that happened so long ago (and not to mention, umpires are notorious racists).
Position scarcity certainly has something to do with it, but does 3B eligibility really make Longoria a first rounder and Young a middle round pick?
I am not suggesting that you pick Delmon Young in the first round, nor am I suggesting that he is more valuable than Longoria. Longoria is an established player and offers more speed on the bases. Additionally, he is a 3B in a year when Mark Reynolds and his sub-.200 average is one of the better bets at the hot corner. However, I am suggesting that you consider Delmon in your fantasy draft, because he is being vastly underrated.
Let’s first look at Delmon’s BABIP. From 2007 to 2009 he was the definition of consistency as he posted the same exact BABIP each year (.338). Last year, his BABIP dropped 26 points to .312…yikes! We can expect to see an improvement at the plate, just by virtue of a normalized BABIP next year.
Delmon also was able to improve his K and BB rates in 2010. In fact, Young lowered his strikeout rate to a career low. Will these trends continue? I guess that is the fun of fantasy baseball.
Finally, all reports of Justin Morneau’s healthy are looking good. A healthy Morneau in the lineup will give Young more pitches to hit. Interestingly enough, Young’s second half slump coincided with Morneau’s absence from the lineup. I am sure that there were other factors involved there, but a healthy Morneau is good for everyones numbers.
Young, by virtue of his lack of patience and fielding, will always be one of those guys who is a better fantasy player than a real baseball player. However, this can make him an absolute bargain come draft day and he is a worthwhile addition to any fantasy baseball squad.