The most outlandish statement I have heard in a while: The New York Yankees are the best run team in Baseball. Now, it might seem like a bit of a stretch to call it outlandish as they have by far the most wins in baseball since 2000 (1,060) and have 2 world series wins in that timeframe (4 appearances total) which would seem to go along with their spending habits, but by my standards, they don’t fit the bill.

In my mind, a well-run team is one that gets the most out of its payroll, drafts well, gets rid of talent at the optimal time, and brings in talent that hasn’t hit their prime or is a bargain. Much of my criteria isn’t really quantified, but is really more of a gut feeling. I am going to attempt to quantify my reasoning one piece at a time.

I decided to first start out by finding out how much each win costs a given franchise by figuring out the payroll dollars per win since 2000 (obviously not a perfect stat as teams spending habits change, stadiums bring in new revenue, high payrolls are hurt ones ranking, teams play 1 extra game, etc… although it could be argued that it is a change in managerial style).

There were teams you would expect to be near the top of this list such as the Athletics and the Twins and teams you would expect to be towards the bottom of this list such as the Cubs and Mets, but there were a few surprises.

Team                                 Total Paid                    Wins           Dollars per win
Florida Marlins                 $478,814,349                  891           $537,389.84
Oakland Athletics            $574,959,137                 971           $592,130.93
Tampa Bay Rays               $469,725,535                 790          $594,589.28
Minnesota Twins              $601,426,206                 957          $628,449.54
Pittsburgh Pirates            $466,759,988                738          $632,466.11
Washington Nationals    $528,184,833                780          $677,160.04
San Diego Padres              $582,315,136                 859           $677,898.88
Cleveland Indians            $620,903,764               885           $701,586.17
Milwaukee Brewers         $609,120,945                818           $744,646.63
Houston Astros                 $730,095,980               908          $804,070.46
Arizona Diamondbacks  $715,130,500               870          $821,989.08
Colorado Rockies              $701,448,932               852           $823,296.87
Cincinnati Reds                 $699,606,513                842           $830,886.60
Toronto Blue Jays            $740,858,380               890           $832,425.15
Los Angeles Angels          $840,140,155               980            $857,285.87
Kansas City Royals           $673,539,541               739            $911,420.22
St. Louis Cardinals            $926,134,817               999            $927,061.88
Texas Rangers                    $806,383,595               866            $931,158.89
San Francisco Giants       $892,679,595              947             $942,639.49
Atlanta Braves                   $962,011,471               983              $978,648.50
Philadelphia Phillies        $937,167,097             947              $989,616.79
Chicago White Sox            $957,508,361             945              $1,013,236.36
Seattle Mariners                $972,514,650             898               $1,082,978.45
Boston Red Sox                  $1,142,728,754         1,009          $1,132,535.93
Los Angeles Dodgers       $1,089,446,517         942              $1,156,524.96
Detroit Tigers                      $943,226,991             810              $1,164,477.77
Baltimore Orioles              $921,232,687            764              $1,205,801.95
Chicago Cubs                      $1,202,580,940        882              $1,363,470.45
New York Mets                  $1,360,360,614         894              $1,521,656.17
New York Yankees           $1,723,067,370      1,060           $1,625,535.25

The team that is quite interesting to me is the Florida Marlins. They often get criticized for their approach even though it has paid off in terms of World Series wins. They trade people when they get too expensive, bring in young talent, and build towards a championship caliber team which they will blow up if necessary (read: eventually).

Surprises: Pirates – They were quite a bit higher on the list then I would have anticipated, although when you spend so little, it doesn’t matter how few wins you have. Orioles – I guess I didn’t realize how crappy they were at spending their money and I know they play in the east, but they were 1 of 2 teams (the Royals being the other) to spend over $50 million per year on average and not win 800 games in the 11 years I looked at.

I think the thing I found the most telling is of the notion that spending a ton of money doesn’t guarantee a ton of success holds true. Obviously, if you spend more, you are more likely to win, but there are teams like the A’s, Twins, and even Marlins that show you can win without spending a fortune on your lineup.

As for the Twins specifically, they are about where you would expect them to be. As the payroll rises, they have to pay more for wins (from $239,413 per win in 2000 to $1,037,863 per win in 2010), which is exactly what you would expect in general as this metric tends to handicap teams with a higher payroll (I really could put more time into this and make it a bit more standardized metric if there is interest, but I wanted to get this out quickly). The ideal payroll truly depends on a number of factors, but the main factor should be finding equilibrium between the output (wins) that you desire and the minimum input (straight cash homie) needed by maximizing the things I listed above: drafting well, getting the most for your talent (as they get overpaid) and bringing in the right combination of talent and upside.

If this is of interest to people, I will keep going in my attempt to quantify which front office is the best and provide analysis when all is said and done (frankly, it would take too long to put it all together as one piece).

Note: Regular season win stats.

“I wonder what Mom is making for lunch.”

2011 AL Central Positional Breakdown of the Contenders

BYTO recently had an intense discussion of the Twins’ prospects for the 2011 season.  Many people took umbrage with Nick N.’s opinion that the Twins will likely finish third in the AL Central.  The Twins’ weaknesses were discussed at length, but let’s break it down further, position-by-position for each of the three contenders for the division title (Twins, Tigers, White Sox).  We’ll compare the players to each other, and also to what each team had at the position last season.

2010 final standings

Twins:              94-68

White Sox:       88-74, 6 GB

Tigers:             81-81, 13 GB

Indians:            69-93, 25 GB (not discussed, will almost certainly stink again)

Royals:             67-95, 27 GB (not discussed, will almost certainly stink again)

Infielders (Outfield/DH & Pitchers to come later)

Catcher

1.      Twins: Mauer.  Last season his numbers were nearly identical to his career averages, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll do any worse than that at the prime age of 28.  A slight uptick in homeruns could be expected in his second year in Target Field – he hit 43 doubles last year (career high), but only 9 homeruns, and his HR/FB% of 3.8% matched his career low.  However, his 2009 season of 28 homers and .587 SLG% continues to look like an outlier.  Defensively, despite Dan’s pessimism, Mauer continues to be considered one of the best in the game.

2.      Tigers: Alex Avila/Victor Martinez.  Since Martinez is expected to take most of his at-bats as the DH, Avila is really the full-time catcher.  In 355 career MLB at-bats, he has slash lines of .237/.383/.710.  He is only 24 and could improve, but is generally not regarded as a great offensive prospect.  He appears to be the standard “solid defensive catcher” that won’t hurt the team offensively.  Martinez is clearly an offensive upgrade, but also a defensive liability.

3.      White Sox: A.J. Pierzynski/Ramon Castro.  Pierzynski’s calling card – being a hot-headed prick that gets under the opposing teams’ skin – appears to be his greatest strength now that he enters his 13^th MLB season at the age of 34.  His OPS for 2008-10 was .725, but a career-low .688 last year.  He also is considered a below-average defender.  Tyler Flowers was supposed to take over soon, but he hit .220 and struck out in over 30% of his at-bats in AAA last year.

Major Advantage: Twins.  Production compared to last year: Same for Twins/White Sox, slight improvement for Tigers.

First Base

1.      Tigers: Miguel Cabrera.  He might drink like a fish, but it doesn’t hurt his numbers.  He’ll turn 28 in April and just came off the best season of his career, putting up a line of .328/.420/.622, including a career-high OPS+ of 179 (20 points higher than previous best).  His power numbers might come down slightly, but expect another MVP-caliber season.

2.      Twins: Justin Morneau.  Nearly impossible to gauge with his concussion issues as he turns 30 years old.  If he’s healthy for the season, he’s the clear #2 on this list.  Since all reports have been good so far this spring, and since the Twins have a decent backup plan if he can’t go (Cuddyer), the Twins rank slightly ahead of the White Sox, although it’s more of a 2a and 2b ranking than 2 and 3.

3.      White Sox: Paul Konerko.  Another guy coming off a career-best year (OPS+ of 158, 22 points higher than previous best), except Konerko is turning 35, not 28.  He’s solid, but expect a regression near his career averages of .280/.356/.854.

Advantage: Tigers.  Production compared to last year: Same for Tigers, questionable for Twins, downgrade for White Sox.

Second Base

1.      White Sox: Gordon Beckham.  Beckham’s ceiling wins this position by default because of the crapshoots that the Tigers and Twins have at second.  Beckham struggled mightily in the first two-thirds of 2010 after a very promising finish to 2009, then rebounded at the end of 2010 before injuring his hand in September.  His walk rate and strikeout rate went in the wrong directions last year.  A pivotal player in the AL Central this season.

2.      Twins: Tsuyoshi Nishioka.  His ceiling is likely a guy who hits well over .300, gets on base, steals 20 or so bases, and plays good defense.  But he has an injury history, little power, and the track record of Japanese infielders coming to MLB is not good.  And the Twins have Matt Tolbert (gulp) backing him up.  It’s dicey, for sure.

3.      Tigers: Carlos Guillen/Scott Sizemore/Will Rhymes.  Guillen is 35 and coming off knee surgery (shocker).  His at-bats over the past 3 seasons: 420, 277, 253.  Sizemore has the highest upside of the bunch, but he really struggled last season and lost the job.  Rhymes played well at the end of last year and could potentially hold his own, but likely would regress significantly from his .304/.350/.414 numbers in 191 AB’s last year.

Advantage: White Sox (potentially large).  Production compared to last year: Improvement for White Sox, same for Tigers, crapshoot for Twins but likely similar (Orlando Hudson went .268/.338/.372 last season in 126 games, with 10 stolen bases).

Shortstop

1.      White Sox: Alexei Ramirez.  Despite his free-swinging ways, Ramirez has been pretty consistent his first 3 seasons.  Expect a line close to his .280/.321/.430 career averages, with solid defense and 10-15 steals.

2.      Twins: Alexi Casilla.  The enigmatic infielder is going to finally get a shot at a full-time job this season without Gardy’s favorite son waiting in the wings, and Twins fans are hoping he runs with it and lives up to his potential as a speedy, decent-average, decent-defense shortstop.  He was terrible in 2007, good in 2008, terrible in 2009, and good in 2010 (insert flashbacks of “even-year Punto”).  I like his range at SS and speed on the basepaths (35 for 39 on stolen base attempts) more than anything Peralta offers.

3.      Tigers: Jhonny Peralta.  Maybe I have an unnatural hatred for Peralta, but he has one skill left, power, and it’s inconsistent power at that.  His defense is a huge liability at SS, and he doesn’t hit for average or walk.  In 2009, his OPS was .697; in 2010, it was .703.  Maybe he catches lightning in a bottle and gets back to his 2008 OPS of .804.  He’s trending downward, and the range of a Peralta-Guillen middle infield would be downright comical.

Major Advantage: White Sox.  Production compared to last year: same for White Sox, same for Tigers (combo of Ramon Santiago, Danny Worth, and Peralta last year), slight downgrade for Twins (Hardy played 101 games last year and had an OPS of .714 with no speed and good defense.  He might be better this year, but the Twins simply didn’t get much out of him last year.).

Third Base

1.      Twins: Danny Valencia.  Scoff if you want, but when you look at the Tigers’ and White Sox’s third base options, Valencia comes out on top.  He might not hit .311 again, but his minor league numbers suggest he’s a .285-.295 hitting, 10-15 homerun guy, so his .311 average and 7 homers last year, in 299 at-bats, were close to his career norms.  His biggest advantage over Inge is that he actually takes walks, too (.353 OBP in minors, .350 in MLB last year).  He might face an adjustment period as pitchers find his weaknesses, but nothing in his numbers suggests that he’ll fall flat on his face in his first full big-league season.

2.      White Sox: Brent Morel, Mark Teahen, and Dayan Viciedo will battle for the job in spring training.  Morel is a promising prospect and has a solid minor league track record, and has very similar minor league numbers to Valencia (Morel: .305/.354/.464; Valencia: .298/.353/.469).  He’s also considered a very good defender that can even play shortstop.  The difference is that Morel hasn’t done it yet at the MLB level yet (.231/.271/.415 in 65 AB’s), and has to battle Teahen for playing time.  Viciedo has tremendous power but swings at everything and is bad defensively.

3.      Tigers: Brandon Inge.  His OPS over the last 4 seasons: .688, .672, .720, .718.  He’s a free-swinger that hasn’t reached 15 homeruns in 3 of the past 4 seasons, and turns 34 in May (and he has logged a lot of time at catcher for more wear-and-tear).  His defense is his best quality, by far, but it no longer makes up for his terrible on-base skills and declining power.

Slight Advantage: Twins.  Production compared to last year: improvement for Twins (full year of Valencia, even if he regresses some), probable improvement for White Sox, same for Tigers.