Time for a examination of what the Twins can, will and should do this offseason. First lets go over the roster and the committed payroll next season. I am making arbitration estimates where necessary.

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The almost sure things:

C: Joe Mauer 23m

1B: Justin Morneau 14m

2B: Alexi Casilla 1m*

SS: JJ Hardy 6m*

3B: Danny Valencia .4m

LF: Delmon Young 5m*

CF: Denard Span 1m

RF: Michael Cuddyer 10.5m

DH: Jason Kubel 5.25m

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SP: Fransisco Liriano 5m*

SP: Scott Baker 5m

SP: Kevin Slowey 1.5m*

SP: Brian Duensing .4m

SP: Nick Blackburn 3m

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RP: Joe Nathan 11.25m

RP: Matt Capps 6.5m*

RP: Jose Mijares .4m

BN: Matt Tolbert .4m

BN: Butera/Morales .4m

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# Nick Punto’s final headfirst slide: .5m

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* indicates estimates

#Not on roster

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“Sure thing” commitment:  101.5 million dollars

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The Twins already have a large commitment to the payroll in 2011 and this is without considering the FA to be(Pavano, Thome,ect.). Next we have to enter the realm of speculation: How much will payroll rise this winter? Due to sellout crowds all year, my assumption is that we’ll see payroll increase and my guess is by around 15 million over last years starting payroll. I’ll preface this by saying I don’t know if that’ll happen but I assume they want a competitive product and the willingness to add payroll in season this year seems to indicate that ownership isn’t adverse to spending more cash when the money flows in. Looking at the above 25 man, there are obvious holes in the bullpen and bench and possible weaknesses in the IF(can Valencia keep it up, can Casilla put together a full season?), and SP(will Slowey ever put it all together, which Blackburn was a fluke?).

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Now to start filling out the rest of the roster.

RP: Manship .4m- he filled in reasonably well when asked to this season good shot for long man in 2011

RP: Burnett .4 m- had a decent first half, definitely has the pitches to make it work, needs to be less wild.

This is where the Twins probably have some tough decisions to make, which areas will they spend on in 2011. First and foremost I would resign preferably Crain, but alternately Rauch or Guerrier would work to add needed experience and health to the bullpen.

Estimated Cost: 4.5 million

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I know at this point many would argue for Thome, I however advise against it. He’s aging, struggles against lefties, can’t play everyday, painfully slow. Unless he was willing to sign another contract in the 1.5 million range, I can’t justify spending 5 million or so on a player I view as headed for a decline in production. Others would petition for resigning Pavano but at the prices(8/9 mil?) he’s going to get(and length) signing Pavano might very well preclude making any other off-season moves and we’d have to live with 4 new or mostly new faces in the pen and a recovering Nathan.

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My remaining moves:

Resign Orlando Hudson to another 5 million dollar contract. He had a down year which should suppress his cost but examining his history it seems logical that he’d bounce back to a degree. Also I’m not sold on Casilla and to a much lesser extent Valencia. Its critical that the Twins don’t go back to having the bottom 1/3rd of the lineup be a black hole and Hudson is a great way to insure that doesn’t happen.

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Sign Reed Johnson to a .8 million dollar contract. He had a bit of a down year as well so is not particularly likely to see a pay raise. Even if he did it’d be a small one. Over the past 4 years his average OPS is in the .850(.790 this year)against lefties. He also play very good corner OF defense and is passable in center(or was when I watched him on the Cubs). This team needs both a 4th OF and a guy who hits lefties well and Johnson fits the bill. Couldn’t cover CF if Span went down for a serious injury, but he is likely to be less of a hazard in center than Cuddyer for 5-10 games a year. Roberts or Revere would be the obvious choices if Span went down for a more prolonged period.

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Last Bullpen spot: Either just go with a Waldrop/Slama/Neshek option or maybe find this years Clay Condrey or Ron Mahay. Estimated Cost: .4 million(going with the young guys).

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#Brendan Harris’s abomination: 1.75 million

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2011 Opening Day Payroll: 113.75 million

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Fire away with an criticisms/comments.