Time for a examination of what the Twins can, will and should do this offseason. First lets go over the roster and the committed payroll next season. I am making arbitration estimates where necessary.

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The almost sure things:

C: Joe Mauer 23m

1B: Justin Morneau 14m

2B: Alexi Casilla 1m*

SS: JJ Hardy 6m*

3B: Danny Valencia .4m

LF: Delmon Young 5m*

CF: Denard Span 1m

RF: Michael Cuddyer 10.5m

DH: Jason Kubel 5.25m

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SP: Fransisco Liriano 5m*

SP: Scott Baker 5m

SP: Kevin Slowey 1.5m*

SP: Brian Duensing .4m

SP: Nick Blackburn 3m

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RP: Joe Nathan 11.25m

RP: Matt Capps 6.5m*

RP: Jose Mijares .4m

BN: Matt Tolbert .4m

BN: Butera/Morales .4m

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# Nick Punto’s final headfirst slide: .5m

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* indicates estimates

#Not on roster

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“Sure thing” commitment:  101.5 million dollars

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The Twins already have a large commitment to the payroll in 2011 and this is without considering the FA to be(Pavano, Thome,ect.). Next we have to enter the realm of speculation: How much will payroll rise this winter? Due to sellout crowds all year, my assumption is that we’ll see payroll increase and my guess is by around 15 million over last years starting payroll. I’ll preface this by saying I don’t know if that’ll happen but I assume they want a competitive product and the willingness to add payroll in season this year seems to indicate that ownership isn’t adverse to spending more cash when the money flows in. Looking at the above 25 man, there are obvious holes in the bullpen and bench and possible weaknesses in the IF(can Valencia keep it up, can Casilla put together a full season?), and SP(will Slowey ever put it all together, which Blackburn was a fluke?).

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Now to start filling out the rest of the roster.

RP: Manship .4m- he filled in reasonably well when asked to this season good shot for long man in 2011

RP: Burnett .4 m- had a decent first half, definitely has the pitches to make it work, needs to be less wild.

This is where the Twins probably have some tough decisions to make, which areas will they spend on in 2011. First and foremost I would resign preferably Crain, but alternately Rauch or Guerrier would work to add needed experience and health to the bullpen.

Estimated Cost: 4.5 million

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I know at this point many would argue for Thome, I however advise against it. He’s aging, struggles against lefties, can’t play everyday, painfully slow. Unless he was willing to sign another contract in the 1.5 million range, I can’t justify spending 5 million or so on a player I view as headed for a decline in production. Others would petition for resigning Pavano but at the prices(8/9 mil?) he’s going to get(and length) signing Pavano might very well preclude making any other off-season moves and we’d have to live with 4 new or mostly new faces in the pen and a recovering Nathan.

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My remaining moves:

Resign Orlando Hudson to another 5 million dollar contract. He had a down year which should suppress his cost but examining his history it seems logical that he’d bounce back to a degree. Also I’m not sold on Casilla and to a much lesser extent Valencia. Its critical that the Twins don’t go back to having the bottom 1/3rd of the lineup be a black hole and Hudson is a great way to insure that doesn’t happen.

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Sign Reed Johnson to a .8 million dollar contract. He had a bit of a down year as well so is not particularly likely to see a pay raise. Even if he did it’d be a small one. Over the past 4 years his average OPS is in the .850(.790 this year)against lefties. He also play very good corner OF defense and is passable in center(or was when I watched him on the Cubs). This team needs both a 4th OF and a guy who hits lefties well and Johnson fits the bill. Couldn’t cover CF if Span went down for a serious injury, but he is likely to be less of a hazard in center than Cuddyer for 5-10 games a year. Roberts or Revere would be the obvious choices if Span went down for a more prolonged period.

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Last Bullpen spot: Either just go with a Waldrop/Slama/Neshek option or maybe find this years Clay Condrey or Ron Mahay. Estimated Cost: .4 million(going with the young guys).

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#Brendan Harris’s abomination: 1.75 million

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2011 Opening Day Payroll: 113.75 million

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Fire away with an criticisms/comments.

I have a confession to make. I’ve been one of the original members of the fire Gardenhire bandwagon since 2003, even before the infamous save specialist Joe Nathan/Jason Kuddubel incident that happened in 2004. I’ve wanted Gardenhire out of his job for quite some time much to the chagrin of many of my fellow Twins fans, many of whom think I’m a complete idiot for thinking it.  Then again, they might just be right, but based on what we’ve seen the last two days, they could also be completely wrong. Interestingly enough, the subject of  Ron Gardenhire  is one of the most divisive subjects among Twins fans, as fans are either staunchly pro-Gardenhire or staunchly anti-Gardenhire. There seems to be very little middle ground.   Both sides seem to be willfully blind to some obvious things.

For instance, I love how the Gardy lovers just pretend that the 2004 ALDS never happened, or how they state that his regular season record is worthy of praise while his post season record is not. I love how they pretend that the playoffs are just a crap shoot, yet fail to explain how it is that teams like the Yankees seem to be immune to this. I love how they pretend that actual game management decisions mean nothing as does our regular season record against the same Yankees squad (or for the rest of the non-Baltimore AL East for that matter).

In the same token, the Gardy haters just ignore what he has done or the ramifications of it. I love how they pretend that a cohesive clubhouse means nothing and that it is very easy to manufacture.  They ignore the fact that Gardenhire has managed several teams that have clearly outperformed expectations, and they seem to be oblivious to the fact that several of Gardenhire’s “playoff teams” would not have had .500 records in any other division. I love how they pretend that firing a coach is simple and has little ramifications. Ask any player what it feels like to have their boss fired.  The players know that these decisions ultimately fall on their performance, and that will affect the club house. Just look at how dysfunctional the Mets and Cubs clubhouses are.  One would think that it should give anyone pause to doing something rashly.

The simple truth is that there’s nothing simple about this. There are definitely areas that need to be addressed. Gardenhire really is a bad game manager, and he really doesn’t handle rookies that well either. The only reason Danny Valencia got the opportunity he’s had is because everyone else was hurt for an extended period of time. No other rookie under Gardy’s tenure has had that type of an opportunity.  This is a huge problem, especially given that every other rookie has ended up struggling for way too long  during Gardenhires tuenure (most of whom later admit that they felt they needed to go 3/4 to play the next day). While Gardenhire prepares his team for the regular season, it is clear that both he and his teams have not been prepared for the post season. His players consistently wilt under that pressure, particularly his offenses and his bullpens. It’s almost as if the team has one simple goal: to win the division, and once they get that done, they aren’t sure what else to do. I can expect that out of some of the poorer teams he managed. He shouldn’t be faulted for 2009, when he had a team that wasn’t worthy of the playoffs and would not have gotten there had they been in any other division. On the flip side, he runs a fantastic club house, and I get the impression that most of his players would take a bullet for him. Those of us, such as myself, who have never operated inside of a baseball clubhouse often take this for granted, but I don’t believe it is an accident that some of the more talented non-performing teams in the league (such as the Mets) also have dysfunctional clubhouses to go with it. There is a risk to firing Gardenhire, a big one. We could end up like the Mets very quickly, and I’d add that players the players would likely take his firing personally, which probably would not be in the team’s best interest. So given our poor showing in the playoffs this year, would I fire Gardy? Interestingly enough, I would not. But I do think that Bill Smith would be doing the Twins a favor to see if he can figure out a way to have someone else quitely manage the games for Gardenhire while Gardy does what he does best: run the clubhouse. Perhaps the best solution would be to fire Ulger and bring back TK with TK handling more of the in-game responsibilities than what others are aware of. I know this, Tom Kelly’s teams were never unprepared for the post season. He has two rings to show for it.

Note from Rocketpig: a day late but, oh well.

The Twins lost again to the Yankees last night. This was supposed to be the year when they get the monkey off their backs, and yet it happened again. The Twins lead and give it up and can’t recover.

There is a thread going which basically discusses whether the series and the season is over. If one wants to look at the past and the odds, indeed it is not likely that the Twins can survive losing game 1.

However, there are literally thousands of ways for the Twins to win this series. The Twins are a very good team and they have the means to win not only tonight, but three games in the next three or four.

Somebody or a number of somebodies needs to stand up and do something very good on the baseball field. Maybe it’s Danny Valencia, maybe it’s Joe Mauer, or maybe it’s Michael Cuddyer. Possibly, Pavano can show the form he had when he beat Mr. No Hit (Doc Halladay). This also means that the Twins will need to win a game in the Bronx, maybe two. I think they are more than capable of doing this.

It would be a lot easier to have won the game last night when they had the Yankees’ ace down 3-0 in the sixth. Now it won’t be easy. It will take somebody doing more than we can expect based on the regular season.

Maybe the extraordinary contribution will come from an unlikely source–a long ball from Hardy, a four hit game for Span or Hudson. Maybe an underacheiver from this year makes up for his disappointing regular season. Certainly, it can be done. It’s about time that the Twins win a playoff series versus the Yankees.

The Twins take on the Yankees at 7:30 tonight for game one of the ALDS. Check out our forums and talk Twins playoff baseball or bitch about the Yankees in our Game One ALDS Thread. In the meantime, be sure to change all your Yankees fan coworkers’ desktops to this image sometime during the work day:

It’s that time of the year. I’m gonna give it a go and try and predict who takes home the title with a little bit of homerism on the side.

ALDS:

Rangers over Rays in 5 games. Cliff Lee wins 2 big games but is worn down for the ALCS.  Josh Hamilton gets oh-so-hot once again.

Twins over Yankees in 4 games. If there were ever a chance for a team to overlook another team, this is the spot.  The Yankees do just that and the Twins spank them in games one and two.  While the Yankees show a little light in game 3, big-game Blackburn comes back in game four and slams the door in the damn Yankees’ face.

NLDS

Phillies over (?) Does it honestly matter who these guys are playing?  My guess is Roy-Roy and Cole shut down the Reds in 3 games. I’ll take the under on 16 hits in the series for the Reds.

Giants over Braves in 4 games. Sorry Bobby, but losing Chip and Prado hurt too much.  The Giants have a very weak lineup, but I can’t truly believe that Lowe/Hudson/Hanson can outduel the young guns from SanFran.  You had a great run Bobby.

ALCS

Twins over Rangers in 5 games. Did you expect anything else?  The way I watched the Twins roll over Texas in Minneapolis a month and a half ago, I just have to believe the Twins can take down the Rangers after Lee is used up in the ALDS.

NLCS

Phillies over the Giants in five. The Phillies are too strong.  Enough said.

WORLD SERIES (NL HOST)

Well, too be honest, this is the way I saw it going down months ago.  I hope i’m wrong, but Phillies in 7 games.

WORLD SERIES MVP

Roy Halladay