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Archive for September, 2010

With the Twins having all up wrapped up the division with a sweep over the White Sox in Chicago, it’s time to start looking toward the postseason. The Twins are nine games up in the AL Central race and just a 1/2 game back from the Rays for the best record in baseball. Homefield advantage is definitely something to strive for but if it costs the team by battering some of its core players when the division was already a foregone conclusion, is it really worth the fight?

Barring a monumental collapse, Minnesota will enter the postseason with no worse than the #2 seed, giving them homefield in the ALDS and possibly the ALCS, should they advance alongside the #3 seed. The Twins also enjoy the luxury of finishing the season against a slew of teams that are no better than .500 as of today while the Rays and Yankees battle each other and the ever-dangerous Red Sox several more times in September and October.

With that in mind, I think it’s time for Gardenhire to begin resting starters on a daily basis, starting with Michael Cuddyer. Since Morneau went down with a concussion in July, Cuddyer has played every game and the strain of picking up first base every day is starting to show in Mikey’s numbers. His OPS+ over July, August, and September are 134, 91, and 64. As Cuddyer is one of only two legitimate right-handed power threats on the team and that Minnesota may face any combination of Pettitte, Sabathia, Lee, and Price in the postseason, it seem obvious that Gardenhire needs to start working Cuddy out of the lineup on a regular basis as soon as possible to get him prepared to face some of the best left-handers in baseball in early October.

The question is: will he do it or will he push Cuddy in an attempt to gain homefield advantage throughout? Or, possibly, a more important question is: will Cuddyer even help the team at this point by continuing to post a .612 OPS in September?

Picture of the Week

The only thing you guys know about pitching is that you can’t hit it. Go away and please let me do my job.

Keeping Thome Fresh

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize, when looking at Jim Thome’s declining numbers in recent years and his resurgence this year, that he has benefited from a reduced workload and regular rest. I wanted to take a deeper look at that statistically to see just how much of a difference that rest made throughout the course of the season. I went through Thome’s game log and by my calculations, which might not be perfect but should be very close, Thome has started three straight games without an off day seven times this season. On four occasions that three straight games stretched to four. So, there has been 11 games this season in which Thome was starting for either the third or fourth consecutive day. The numbers breakdown:

Overall:
302 PA, 23 HR (1 in 13.1 PA), 41 extra base hits (1 in 7.4 PA), .277 AVG, .405 OBP, .635 SLG

When starting first or second consecutive day or pinch hitting:
259 PA, 23 HR (1 in 11.3 PA), 38 extra base hits (1 in 6.8 PA), .292 AVG, .421 OBP, .651 SLG

When starting third or fourth consecutive day:
43 PA, 0 HR, 3 extra base hits (1 in 14.3 PA), .189 AVG, .302 OBP, .270 SLG

While I admit this is a small sample size, there’s no denying the insanity of those splits. Jim hasn’t started three or four straight since August 20-23rd. With only one more off day for the rest of the regular season, hopefully Gardy will resist the temptation to throw him out there in that situation again. Fortunately, with travel days, it will be less of an issue come playoff time, but I do fear that potential decline in production in a potential World Series or ALCS game five, as I have alot of trouble, assuming Morneau doesn’t return, seeing Gardy not having him in the lineup for every single playoff game.

Looking at the upcoming schedule, the Twins face five lefties who are all competent or better in the next six games. Thome’s extreme lefty-righty splits are no secret to anyone, but compared to other options, he’s still the best bet at DH against lefties, with a higher OPS than both Kubel and Mauer as well as any other bench option. Hopefully Gardy will still trot him out there for four of the next six. If it were me, I’d start Mauer at DH on Wednesday with Pavano going and Saturday with the day game after a night game and start Thome Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, and Sunday.

Picture of the Week

Hrbek looking for scrapsSea World’s new Make-A-Wish program gives a cancer-ridden Shamu a chance to shag grounders at Target Field.

Picture of the Week

Jim Thome learns through tough love.Next time you kneel in His presence.